Modeled Conversions

Modeled conversions are sales the platform estimates and fills in for you when it could not track them directly.

Privacy settings, blocked cookies, and people who opt out mean the platform cannot see every conversion anymore. To fill the gap, Google and Meta use the conversions they can still measure, along with patterns from similar users, to estimate the ones they lost. Those estimated sales get added into your reported numbers as modeled conversions.

Look at a campaign that reports fifty conversions. Some of those are people the platform watched click and buy. Others are its best statistical guess for buyers it could no longer follow all the way through. You are not always told which is which in the headline number, only that the total blends both.

Modeled conversions are an estimate, not a receipt. They can be reasonably close or they can drift, and because they are filled in by the platform selling you ads, it pays to check the modeled figures against what your own backend actually recorded.

Some of your reported sales are measured. Some are a guess. Know the difference.